This weekly forex market recap covers the week ending Saturday 17 October 2026, five sessions that took the 🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY) from an 18-month high near 103.00 to its first weekly loss in more than a month, while the 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD exchange rate fell to a 2026 low of 1.1113 and recovered to finish near 1.1255, and 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY ended at 157.79 as the yen snapped four losing weeks. Below you will find what moved currency trading this week, the EUR/USD, DXY and USD/JPY technical levels cited in the weekend coverage, and the forex economic calendar with the high-impact events ahead. The Forex Expresso is published every Tuesday to Saturday after the New York session.

Forex Market Today: Dollar Posts Its First Weekly Loss in Over a Month

The week split cleanly in two. Through Wednesday the dollar was in charge: the September US consumer price report showed annual inflation at 3.7 percent against the 3.6 percent economists expected, with core CPI at 2.6 percent, and the 🇺🇸 US Dollar Index touched about 103.00, a level last seen in April 2025, while 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD fell to 1.1113, its lowest of 2026, according to FXStreet. Thursday’s producer price index added a 1.3 percent monthly jump, the largest since 2022. The dollar still peaked within hours of Wednesday’s CPI report: a Bloomberg report that China may resume buying US Treasuries pulled yields off their highs, and the 10-year ended the week near 5.10 percent, down from an early October peak of 5.31 percent.

The decisive push came from the Federal Reserve itself. Speaking in Bangkok on Friday, 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said decisions will be made meeting by meeting and gave no signal on the October 27-28 gathering, remarks that sent the dollar to a two-week low on Friday. The US Dollar Index closed near 101.61, down about 0.6 percent on the week, its first weekly decline in more than a month, according to Reuters data. The CME FedWatch Tool ended the week showing an 85 percent probability that the Fed holds rates this month. “I don’t think there is enough support in the committee, particularly from the governors, for a rate hike in October,” BNY macro strategist John Velis told Reuters, adding that December remains open.

Across the majors, 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD gained about half a percent on the week to 1.1255, its first weekly advance in over a month, according to FXStreet, helped on the euro side by Eurostat confirming euro area inflation at 3.8 percent in September, a three-year high that keeps at least one more ECB hike priced in. 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY slipped to 157.79, a 0.3 percent weekly gain for the yen after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda repeated that underlying inflation risks overshooting the 2 percent target, per Reuters. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBP/USD rose 0.9 percent on the week to 1.3353, and gold traded near 4,200 dollars an ounce with crude oil still around 100 dollars a barrel on the Middle East conflict.

EUR/USD, DXY and USD/JPY: Technical Levels on the Radar

These are the technical levels named in the weekend forex analysis across the financial press, reported here for information only. On 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD, FXStreet analyst Valeria Bednarik calls the rebound corrective, placing first resistance at the 20-day SMA near 1.1290, with 1.1360 and 1.1470 above it, and support at the 200-week SMA at 1.1100, the line she says needs to hold to keep the psychological 1.1000 mark out of play. On the 🇺🇸 US Dollar Index, FXEmpire analyst Arslan Ali wrote on Friday that a close below 101.60 would strengthen the case for further losses, while a recovery above 102.26 would invalidate that reading. On 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY, ActionForex’s weekly outlook opens the new week with a neutral bias, naming 156.36 as the support that keeps the larger uptrend intact, 159.02 and 160.38 as the resistance levels above, and the 55-day moving average at 158.09 as the line in between. A week in which the dollar surrendered an 18-month high within three sessions is a live lesson in how fast open positions can swing, the territory we cover in drawdown management.

Forex Economic Calendar: High-Impact Events for EUR/USD Traders

The next two weeks of the forex calendar lead straight into the Fed and ECB meetings. Times are CET (New York in brackets); note that European clocks fall back on 25 October and US clocks on 1 November.

• 🇪🇺 Tuesday 20 October, 11:00 (5:00): German ZEW economic sentiment for October, with German producer prices at 8:00, a read on how the euro area’s largest economy enters the ECB meeting.
• 🇪🇺 Friday 23 October, 10:00 (4:00): euro area flash PMIs for October, with the German numbers at 9:30, the last broad growth reading before the ECB meeting.
• 🇺🇸 Friday 23 October, 15:45 (9:45): US flash PMIs for October, a first look at fourth-quarter momentum.
• 🇺🇸 Wednesday 28 October, 19:00 (14:00): Federal Reserve interest rate decision (FOMC), followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 19:30. Markets treat this as a live meeting after the week’s inflation data.
• 🇺🇸 Thursday 29 October, 13:30 (8:30): US advance GDP for the third quarter and September PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, released together.
• 🇪🇺 Thursday 29 October, 14:15 (9:15): European Central Bank interest rate decision, with the ECB press conference at 14:45.
• 🇪🇺 Wednesday 4 November, 11:00 (5:00): euro area flash CPI for October, the first inflation print the ECB sees after its meeting.
• 🇺🇸 Friday 6 November, 14:30 (8:30): US jobs report for October (nonfarm payrolls), the last payrolls release before the December Fed meeting cycle begins.

Forex Trading Glossary: Three Terms From Today’s Expresso

• Blackout period: the roughly ten days before a Federal Reserve meeting during which policymakers stop speaking publicly about policy. It starts this weekend, which makes Warsh’s Bangkok remarks the last Fed word before the October 27-28 decision.
• 200-week moving average: the average of the past 200 weekly closing prices, a slow-moving line often watched as long-term trend support. FXStreet’s Valeria Bednarik places it at 1.1100 on EUR/USD, the week’s key support.
• CME FedWatch Tool: a gauge that converts Fed funds futures prices into implied probabilities for Fed rate decisions. It ended the week showing an 85 percent chance of no change in October.

What’s Brewing Next Week

The new week opens in Asia. China releases third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales on Monday 19 October at 4:00 CET (22:00 Sunday in New York), with Newsquawk’s calendar citing a consensus of 4.4 percent annual growth, numbers the commodity currencies usually react to first; Canada’s September CPI follows at 14:30 CET (8:30 New York). With the Fed in its pre-meeting blackout, Newsquawk’s week-ahead preview points traders to Tuesday’s German ZEW survey, Wednesday’s UK inflation data, Friday’s global flash PMIs and Moody’s scheduled review of France’s Aa3 rating on Friday as the items the market will watch before the Fed and ECB decide at the end of the month. The next Expresso lands on Tuesday evening.

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