Today’s forex market recap for Friday 16 October 2026: the πͺπΊπΊπΈ EUR/USD exchange rate climbed toward 1.1250, the πΊπΈ US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a two-week low near 101.80 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the path of interest rates, and πΊπΈπ―π΅ USD/JPY held steady near 158.00. Below you will find what moved currency trading today, the EUR/USD, DXY and USD/JPY technical levels cited in the day’s coverage, and the forex economic calendar with the high-impact events ahead. The Forex Expresso is published every Tuesday to Saturday after the New York session.
Forex Market Today: Dollar Hits a Two-Week Low as Warsh Holds Fire
After two days of heavy US inflation data, central bank talk set the direction, and the talk cost the dollar. Speaking in Bangkok, πΊπΈ Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he “does not preview rate decisions” and gave no signal on the October 27-28 meeting, noting only that the September hike had removed some policy accommodation, according to FXEmpire. FXStreet reported that the remarks, in which Warsh also described himself as “over-scarred from the global financial crisis,” pushed Treasury yields lower and sent the US Dollar Index to around 101.80, its lowest level in two weeks, extending Thursday’s slide below 102.00. The 10-year Treasury yield traded near 5.11 percent, according to investingLive.
The πͺπΊπΊπΈ EUR/USD exchange rate rose about a quarter of a percent toward 1.1250, touching a session high near 1.1269, and is on track for its first weekly gain in more than a month, according to FXStreet. The euro had inflation news of its own: πͺπΊ Eurostat confirmed euro area annual inflation at 3.8 percent in September, up from 3.2 percent in August, with core inflation at 2.5 percent. Rate pricing kept adjusting too. FXEmpire reported that traders now see roughly a 30 percent chance of a Fed hike in October, well below the near coin flip priced after this week’s hot CPI and PPI reports, while OCBC’s FX strategists called the session an “unusual combination: risk-off, lower Treasury yields and a softer USD,” as quoted by FXStreet.
πΊπΈπ―π΅ USD/JPY was the one major where the dollar held its ground, trading in a tight band around 158.00 after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, in a speech read by Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, repeated that the bank will keep raising rates in line with economic, price and financial conditions, according to FXStreet. π¬π§πΊπΈ GBP/USD broke above 1.3300 to a three-week high near 1.3320, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey calling the UK’s above-target inflation frustrating while saying it is too early to judge second-round effects. Gold traded near 4,200 dollars an ounce as the dollar retreated.
EUR/USD, DXY and USD/JPY: Technical Levels on the Radar
These are the technical levels named in today’s forex analysis across the financial press, reported here for information only. On πͺπΊπΊπΈ EUR/USD, FXStreet analyst Guillermo Alcala placed resistance at 1.1240, where the pair has been capped twice this week, and then at the October 2 high of 1.1290, with first support near 1.1190 and a more important base at the October 14 low of 1.1113. On the πΊπΈ US Dollar Index, FXEmpire analyst Arslan Ali wrote that a close below 101.60 would strengthen the case for further losses, while a close back above 102.26 would invalidate it, and FXStreet places the 20-day exponential moving average at 101.63. On πΊπΈπ―π΅ USD/JPY, investingLive analyst Greg Michalowski flagged the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 158.23 as the ceiling to watch, with the day’s low near 157.80 as first support. Days when a single speech moves every major pair are also a working example of how liquidity risk shapes currency prices.
Forex Economic Calendar: High-Impact Events for EUR/USD Traders
The next two weeks of the forex calendar lead straight into the Fed and ECB meetings. Times are CET (New York in brackets); note that European clocks fall back on 25 October and US clocks on 1 November.
- πͺπΊ Friday 23 October, 10:00 (4:00): euro area flash PMIs for October, with the German numbers at 9:30, the last broad growth reading before the ECB meeting.
- πΊπΈ Friday 23 October, 15:45 (9:45): US flash PMIs for October, a first look at fourth-quarter momentum.
- πΊπΈ Wednesday 28 October, 19:00 (14:00): Federal Reserve interest rate decision (FOMC), followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 19:30. Markets treat this as a live meeting after the week’s inflation data.
- πΊπΈ Thursday 29 October, 13:30 (8:30): US advance GDP for the third quarter and September PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, released together.
- πͺπΊ Thursday 29 October, 14:15 (9:15): European Central Bank interest rate decision, with the ECB press conference at 14:45.
- πͺπΊ Wednesday 4 November, 11:00 (5:00): euro area flash CPI for October, the first inflation print the ECB sees after its meeting.
- πΊπΈ Friday 6 November, 14:30 (8:30): US jobs report for October (nonfarm payrolls), the last payrolls release before the December Fed meeting cycle begins.
Forex Trading Glossary: Three Terms From Today’s Expresso
- HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices): the inflation measure calculated the same way across all EU countries, and the one the ECB targets. Eurostat confirmed the euro area HICP at 3.8 percent for September today.
- Risk-off: a phase when investors sell assets seen as risky and move into safer ones, which usually lifts the dollar. OCBC noted that today’s mix of risk-off mood, lower yields and a softer dollar is an unusual exception.
- Flash PMI: a preliminary purchasing managers’ index published about a week before the final reading, based on most of the monthly survey responses. Next Friday’s flash PMIs are the last broad growth data before the Fed and ECB meetings.
What’s Brewing for Tomorrow
The forex market is closed on Saturday, so the next trading cues arrive with the Asian open on Monday. LiteFinance’s weekly calendar lists China’s third-quarter GDP, industrial production and retail sales at 4:00 CET on Monday 19 October (22:00 Sunday in New York), numbers the commodity currencies tend to react to first, and no euro area or US releases of comparable weight before the flash PMIs on Friday. Tomorrow’s Expresso will be the weekly edition, covering a week that took the US Dollar Index from an 18-month high near 103.00 to a two-week low.
Forex FAQ
Why did the US dollar fall today, 16 October 2026?
The US Dollar Index fell to a two-week low near 101.80 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the path of interest rates ahead of the October 27-28 meeting, remarks that pushed Treasury yields lower, according to FXStreet.
When is the next Fed interest rate decision?
The Federal Reserve announces its next interest rate decision on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 19:00 CET (14:00 New York), followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.
When is the next ECB meeting?
The European Central Bank announces its next interest rate decision on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 14:15 CET, with the press conference at 14:45 CET.
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