Today’s forex market recap for Thursday 15 October 2026: the 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD exchange rate rebounded toward 1.1215, the 🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 102.00, and 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY eased toward 158.00, with the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both deciding on interest rates in late October. Below you will find what moved currency trading today, the EUR/USD, DXY and USD/JPY technical levels cited in the day’s coverage, and the forex economic calendar with the high-impact events ahead. The Forex Expresso is published every Tuesday to Saturday after the New York session.

Forex Market Today: EUR/USD Rebounds as the Dollar Index Slips Below 102

The dollar gave back ground across the forex market. The US Dollar Index slipped below 102.00, down more than half a percent on the day and retreating further from Wednesday’s high around 103.00, a level it had not touched since April 2025, according to FXStreet. The trigger came from the bond market: the 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 30 basis points from Wednesday’s peak to around 5.09 percent, a three-week low, after a Bloomberg report that China may resume buying US bonds through indirect channels prompted traders to take profit on long dollar positions.

The 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD exchange rate was the main beneficiary. The euro-dollar pair rose about half a percent to trade near 1.1215, a move TradingKey described as short covering after the sell-off that followed Wednesday’s hot US consumer inflation report. The backdrop remains tense for the euro: French-German bond spreads have widened on budget concerns in Paris, and higher oil and gas prices linked to the Middle East conflict keep pressure on the euro area’s terms of trade.

Interest rates are what make the current trading range so unstable. US producer prices rose 1.3 percent in September, the largest monthly jump since March 2022 according to CNN, one day after the annual CPI rate came in at 3.7 percent. Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said a Federal Reserve rate hike at the late October meeting is now roughly a coin flip, while FXStreet noted that markets still price more than an 85 percent chance of a hike by year-end. 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY eased toward 158.00 after Wednesday’s rejection at 159.00, with Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda calling for further rate increases in Tokyo.

EUR/USD, DXY and USD/JPY: Technical Levels on the Radar

These are the technical levels named in today’s forex analysis across the financial press, reported here for information only. On 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD, TradingKey flagged 1.1000 as the key psychological support below the current consolidation range, while UniCredit, cited by Exchange Rates UK, sees scope for a rebound but regards 1.14 as difficult to reach. On the 🇺🇸 US Dollar Index, FXStreet analyst Haresh Menghani placed first support at 101.92 and 101.79, with a deeper cluster between 101.28 and 100.77, and resistance at the cycle high of 102.95. On 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY, FXStreet identified support at 157.50 and 156.36, with resistance at 159.00 and the 160.00 area above it. Levels cited by analysts are context for reading the market, and sharp moves through them are one of the ways market volatility shows up in currency trading.

Forex Economic Calendar: High-Impact Events for EUR/USD Traders

The next two weeks of the forex calendar are unusually dense for euro and dollar traders. Times are CET (New York in brackets).

• 🇺🇸 Wednesday 28 October, 19:00 (14:00): Federal Reserve interest rate decision (FOMC), followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 19:30. Markets treat this as a live meeting after the week’s inflation data.
• 🇺🇸 Thursday 29 October, 13:30 (8:30): US advance GDP for the third quarter and September PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, released together.
• 🇪🇺 Thursday 29 October, 14:15 (9:15): European Central Bank interest rate decision, with the ECB press conference at 14:45.
• 🇪🇺 Wednesday 4 November, 11:00: Euro area flash CPI for October, the first inflation print the ECB sees after its meeting.
• 🇺🇸 Friday 6 November, 14:30 (8:30): US jobs report for October (nonfarm payrolls), the last payrolls release before the December Fed meeting cycle begins.
• 🇺🇸 Tuesday 10 November, 14:30 (8:30): US CPI inflation data for October.

Forex Trading Glossary: Three Terms From Today’s Expresso

• Pip: the smallest standard price move in a currency pair, 0.0001 for EUR/USD. Today’s half-percent move equals roughly 55 pips.
• US Dollar Index (DXY): a weighted measure of the dollar against six major currencies, with the euro counting for more than half. It is the quickest gauge of broad dollar strength in the forex market.
• Interest rate differential: the gap between interest rates in two currency areas. Money tends to flow toward the higher-yielding currency, which is why Fed and ECB decisions move the EUR/USD exchange rate.

What’s Brewing for Tomorrow

Friday’s calendar is lighter but not empty. The US releases September import prices at 14:30 CET (8:30 New York), followed by industrial production and capacity utilization at 15:15 CET (9:15), according to Kiplinger’s weekly calendar. Before that, two Federal Reserve voices land between tonight and the early hours: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks this evening and 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh follows overnight European time, remarks the financial press will read for any signal on the late October meeting. No euro area data of comparable weight is scheduled.

Forex FAQ

This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to invest in any product or service. Income Capital Management s.r.o. is registered under §15 of the Czech Act on Investment Companies and Investment Funds (ZISIF). Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital.