Today’s forex market recap for Thursday 22 October 2026: the 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD exchange rate slipped below 1.1200 in European trading as French 10-year yields broke above 5 percent, then steadied near 1.1223 once US Treasury yields tumbled, the 🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY) held its 101.50-101.80 band, and 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY fell 0.7 percent to the 157.00 area in a risk-off session led by the yen. Below you will find what moved currency trading today, the EUR/USD, DXY and USD/JPY technical levels cited in the day’s coverage, and the forex economic calendar with the high-impact events ahead. The Forex Expresso is published every Monday to Saturday after the New York session.

Forex Market Today: Yen Leads a Risk-Off Session as French Yields Break 5 Percent

Thursday was the kind of session where one screen told the whole story. The 🇺🇸 dollar, the yen and the Swiss franc gained against the rest of the majors while bonds rallied, in what investingLive analyst Justin Low called a classic risk-off day. European equities gave back Wednesday’s gains, S&P 500 futures lost 1.0 percent and Bitcoin fell 3.4 percent to about 81,700 dollars, per investingLive. Oil supplied the fear: Iran claimed seven tankers were damaged or caught fire overnight in the Strait of Hormuz, a claim not independently confirmed, according to Kitco, and Brent rose above 112 dollars a barrel to its highest since May while WTI approached 100 dollars. Gold broke the usual script, falling 1.3 percent to about 4,087 dollars an ounce with silver down 3.6 percent, per Kitco’s morning report.

The 🇪🇺 euro took the session’s hardest knock in European hours. EUR/USD dropped from 1.1240 to 1.1195, breaking the floor that had held for three straight sessions above 1.1200, as the French 10-year OAT yield moved past 5.10 percent, testing 5.14 percent on protest-related fears, according to FXEmpire analyst Vladimir Zernov. The OAT-Bund spread widened to 170 basis points, its widest since 2011, per investingLive, and EUR/CHF printed a three-month low near 0.9200. Euro area consumer confidence slipped to minus 17 for October, per FXEmpire. By the New York afternoon the pair had clawed back to about 1.1223, down 0.1 percent on the day, as falling US yields took the dollar’s bid away.

The US data was strong, the US bond market rallied anyway. Initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 for the week ended 17 October, below the 200,000 forecast and the lowest since mid-July, with continuing claims at 1.728 million, according to the Labor Department figures reported by FXEmpire. Yet the 2-year Treasury yield slipped below 4.70 percent and the 10-year settled below 5.00 percent, a drop Zernov attributed to demand for bonds amid the US equity sell-off. That pulled 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY down 0.7 percent to the 157.00 area. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBP/USD failed once more at the 1.3385-1.3400 barrier and eased toward 1.3340, a pullback Zernov tied to the fresh rise in oil prices. On policy, Kitco reported that traders assign a high probability to the Fed holding rates at the 27-28 October meeting, with roughly 86 percent odds of a quarter-point hike in December.

EUR/USD, DXY and USD/JPY: Technical Levels on the Radar

These are the technical levels named in Thursday’s forex analysis across the financial press, reported here for information only. On 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD, FXEmpire’s Vladimir Zernov watches the 50-day moving average at 1.1208: a settle below it targets 1.1175-1.1190, with the 1.1100-1.1115 zone underneath, while DailyForex analyst Robert Petrucci marks nearby support at 1.1242 and then 1.1226, and sees a sustained move above 1.1247 opening the way to 1.1259. On the 🇺🇸 US Dollar Index, Zernov places support at 101.50-101.65 and writes that a break below 101.50 opens the 100.85-101.00 area. On 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY, the same analysis puts the next support at 155.00-155.50 if the pair settles below 157.00, with the upside requiring a settle above 158.00-158.50 before 160.00 comes back into view. A day when equities, gold and bitcoin all fall together is the kind of stretch we map in our note on drawdown management.

Forex Economic Calendar: High-Impact Events for EUR/USD Traders

The next two weeks of the forex calendar run straight into the Fed and ECB meetings. Times are CET (New York in brackets); note that European clocks fall back on 25 October and US clocks on 1 November.

• 🇪🇺 Friday 23 October, 10:00 (4:00): euro area flash PMIs for October, with the German numbers at 9:30, the last growth snapshot before the ECB meeting; Moody’s scheduled review of France’s Aa3 rating lands the same day, per ActionForex.
• 🇺🇸 Friday 23 October, 15:45 (9:45): US flash PMIs for October, a first look at fourth-quarter momentum and the last top-tier US data before the Fed meets.
• 🇺🇸 Wednesday 28 October, 19:00 (14:00): Federal Reserve interest rate decision (FOMC), followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 19:30; the Bank of Canada and the UK Autumn Budget land the same day.
• 🇺🇸 Thursday 29 October, 13:30 (8:30): US advance GDP for the third quarter and September PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, released together.
• 🇪🇺 Thursday 29 October, 14:15 (9:15): European Central Bank interest rate decision, with the ECB press conference at 14:45.
• 🇪🇺 Wednesday 4 November, 11:00 (5:00): euro area flash CPI for October, the first inflation print the ECB sees after its meeting.
• 🇺🇸 Friday 6 November, 14:30 (8:30): US jobs report for October (nonfarm payrolls), the last payrolls release before the December Fed meeting cycle begins.

Forex Trading Glossary: Three Terms From Today’s Expresso

• Risk-off: a session in which investors rotate out of equities and higher-yielding currencies into havens such as the yen, the franc and government bonds. Thursday fit the pattern, with stocks and bitcoin lower while the yen led the majors and Treasuries rallied.
• Initial jobless claims: the weekly count of new US applications for unemployment benefits, one of the fastest labor-market signals available. The 194,000 print for the week ended 17 October was the lowest since mid-July, per FXEmpire.
• Safe-haven currency: a currency that tends to strengthen when markets fall, most often the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Both topped Thursday’s board, with USD/JPY down 0.7 percent and EUR/CHF at a three-month low, per investingLive.

What’s Brewing for Tomorrow

Friday is PMI day on both sides of the Atlantic. The German flash PMIs arrive at 9:30 CET (3:30 New York), the euro area composite at 10:00 CET (4:00 New York), and the US flash PMIs at 15:45 CET (9:45 New York), the last top-tier growth readings before next week’s Fed and ECB decisions. FXStreet’s preview headlines that the euro “gets the PMIs first and France’s credit rating over the weekend”, a reference to Moody’s scheduled review of France’s Aa3 rating, due after Friday’s close with the 10-year OAT above 5 percent. With the Fed in blackout through 29 October, per Kiplinger’s calendar, no US central bank speakers are scheduled, and it is the last trading day before European clocks fall back on Sunday 25 October.

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