Today’s forex market recap for Friday 23 October 2026: the 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD exchange rate fell for a second straight day to the 1.1190 area after soft euro area flash PMIs, the 🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed off a three-week low in the low 101s as oil jumped about 3 percent, and 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY swung from 156.08 in Tokyo to above 157.00 in London, all with Moody’s verdict on France’s credit rating due after the European close. Below you will find what moved currency trading today, the EUR/USD, DXY and USD/JPY technical levels cited in the day’s coverage, and the forex economic calendar with the high-impact events ahead. The Forex Expresso is published every Monday to Saturday after the New York session.

Forex Market Today: Euro Slips on Weak PMIs as Moody’s Rules on France Tonight

The month’s main growth report went against the euro. The 🇪🇺 euro area flash composite PMI fell to 51.9 for October from 53.1, below the 52.7 consensus and the first decline since May, with services down to 51.7 from 53.0 and manufacturing at 52.4 from 52.9, according to Marc Chandler of Marc to Market. France’s private sector slipped back into contraction below 50, while German manufacturing improved to 54.2 from 53.9, per FXStreet. 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD, which had already broken below 1.1200 in Thursday’s risk-off session, slipped to 1.1193, off 0.25 percent, late in the US afternoon, per FXEmpire analyst Vladimir Zernov. The euro fared worst against sterling: after UK flash PMIs beat forecasts, with the composite at 53.1 versus 51.8 expected, EUR/GBP printed a 17-month low near 0.8360, according to FXStreet’s Guillermo Alcala.

France remained the pressure point under the single currency. The 10-year OAT yield traded near 5.04 percent and the OAT-Bund spread held around 170 basis points after testing 175 on Thursday, the widest since late 2011, per Chandler, who noted that Moody’s concludes its scheduled review of France’s Aa3 rating, already on negative outlook, after tonight’s European close and wrote that a downgrade seems likely. Roughly 650 million euros of options at the 1.1200 strike expired today, per Chandler’s note.

The 🇺🇸 US data pulled the other way. The flash manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0 for October against a 55.5 forecast while services eased to 57.9, near the 58.0 consensus, per Zernov, and Newsquawk put the composite at 57.6, down from September’s 58.4. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading landed at 48.0, above the 46.3 forecast, per the same FXEmpire analysis. Oil gained about 3 percent on concern that the US and Israel could resume military operations against Iran over the weekend, a rally Zernov tied to the dollar’s rebound. Treasury yields turned back up, the 2-year near 4.68 percent and the 10-year near 4.99 percent, and 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY rebounded about one yen from its 156.08 Tokyo low to 157.16 early in the London session, per MQL5 analyst Masayuki Sakamoto, with 1.2 billion dollars of options at 157.00 rolling off, per Chandler. FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani reported that traders price roughly an 80 percent chance of a Fed hike in December, with next week’s meeting seen as a hold.

EUR/USD, DXY and USD/JPY: Technical Levels on the Radar

These are the technical levels named in Friday’s forex analysis across the financial press, reported here for information only. On 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD, FXEmpire’s Vladimir Zernov places support at 1.1175-1.1190 with the 1.1100-1.1115 zone below, while TraderFactor analyst Phyllis Wangui marks resistance at 1.1250 and then 1.1300. On the 🇺🇸 US Dollar Index, Zernov watches the 50-day moving average at 101.89, with resistance at 102.35-102.50 and support at 101.50-101.65 ahead of the 100.85-101.00 area. On 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY, MQL5’s Masayuki Sakamoto saw intraday support at 156.80 ahead of 156.08 and 156.00, with resistance at 157.36 and the 21-day moving average near 157.88, while Zernov keeps the wider frame between support at 155.00-155.50 and resistance at 158.00-158.50. A week in which one country’s bond spread can move the whole currency board is a reminder of how funding conditions travel across markets, a mechanism we describe in our note on liquidity risk.

Forex Economic Calendar: High-Impact Events for EUR/USD Traders

The next two weeks of the forex calendar run straight into the Fed and ECB meetings. Times are CET (New York in brackets); note that European clocks fall back on 25 October and US clocks on 1 November.

• 🇪🇺 Monday 26 October, 10:30 (5:30): German Ifo business climate for October, the first broad sentiment reading after Friday’s weak flash PMIs.
• 🇺🇸 Wednesday 28 October, 19:00 (14:00): Federal Reserve interest rate decision (FOMC), followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 19:30; the Bank of Canada and the UK Autumn Budget land the same day.
• 🇺🇸 Thursday 29 October, 13:30 (8:30): US advance GDP for the third quarter and September PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, released together.
• 🇪🇺 Thursday 29 October, 14:15 (9:15): European Central Bank interest rate decision, with the ECB press conference at 14:45.
• 🇪🇺 Wednesday 4 November, 11:00 (5:00): euro area flash CPI for October, the first inflation print the ECB sees after its meeting.
• 🇺🇸 Friday 6 November, 14:30 (8:30): US jobs report for October (nonfarm payrolls), the last payrolls release before the December Fed meeting cycle begins.

Forex Trading Glossary: Three Terms From Today’s Expresso

• Sovereign credit rating: a rating agency’s grade of a government’s ability to repay its debt, which feeds directly into that country’s borrowing costs. Moody’s rates France Aa3 with a negative outlook, two notches above S&P and Fitch, and concludes its scheduled review after tonight’s close, per Marc to Market.
• Options expiry: the daily cut, usually 10:00 New York time, when FX option contracts lapse; large strikes can act as a magnet for spot beforehand. Today about 650 million euros expired at 1.1200 in EUR/USD and 1.2 billion dollars at 157.00 in USD/JPY, per Marc to Market.
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment: a monthly survey of US households on their finances and the economy, watched by the Fed for its inflation-expectations component. The final October reading was 48.0, above the 46.3 forecast, per FXEmpire.

What’s Brewing for Tomorrow

No data is scheduled for Saturday, so the weekend trades on one headline: Moody’s decision on France’s Aa3 rating, due after Friday’s European close, which Marc to Market’s Marc Chandler wrote seems likely to end in a downgrade. 🇪🇺 European clocks fall back on Sunday 25 October, which puts CET five hours ahead of New York for one week. The next data point is Monday’s German Ifo business climate at 10:30 CET (5:30 New York), per FinanceCalendar, opening a week that brings the 🇺🇸 Fed on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday 30 October. Tomorrow’s Expresso will be the weekly edition, covering five sessions that took EUR/USD from the mid 1.12s to below 1.1200.

Forex FAQ

This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to invest in any product or service. Income Capital Management s.r.o. is registered under §15 of the Czech Act on Investment Companies and Investment Funds (ZISIF). Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital.